New January data signals a truckload market that’s behaving differently than the last two winters. The National Truckload Index (NTI) climbed to $2.71/mile (incl. fuel) while spot pricing swung sharply—moves typically tied to winter storms, but now amplified by tighter underlying capacity. The key shift: tender rejections have surged past the holiday peak to 13.42%, well above the 7–8% level many analysts view as inflationary and far from the 95%+ compliance enterprise shippers aim to maintain. In other words, weather isn’t just causing short-lived spikes; it’s colliding with routing-guide fallout and limited lane availability, creating outsized rate reactions that can ripple nationally.
At TLC, we’re advising shippers and carriers to treat 2026 as a volatility-forward year: tighten playbooks, validate backup capacity, and use real-time market signals (including SONAR tools often cited by FreightWaves) to make faster, calmer decisions. Fast freight, handled with TLC—reach out and we’ll pressure-test your lanes before the next storm does.
