Transport M&A Hits the Breaks

In Q3 2025, global transport M&A logged its third straight quarterly decline, with deal volumes down roughly 18% quarter-on-quarter and 47.1% year-on-year. Even the proposed $89 billion Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern mega-merger couldn’t mask the broader slowdown, as most invested capital trended lower amid geopolitical risk, tight trade policy, and delayed rate relief.

Strategic, capability-driven acquisitions are still happening, but freight transport is underperforming. Overcapacity in road is pressuring rates, and only modest spot-rate recovery in ocean is leaving margins thin. By contrast, ports and infrastructure remain a rare bright spot, backed by reshoring, localized supply chains, and national resilience agendas. North America and APAC are quieter on volume but active in larger-scale transactions as investors lean into size and efficiency.

Looking ahead, investors are experimenting with minority stakes, continuation vehicles, and creative deal structures while waiting for rate cuts to fully unlock leverage. At TLC, we track these shifts lane by lane and help shippers and asset owners reassess networks and capital strategies. If you’re rethinking your next move in this M&A cycle, our team is ready to talk routes, risks, and options.