Hormuz Reopening Not So Strait-Forward

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may not normalize for six months or longer after the end of the Iran war, due to the scale and uncertainty of mine-clearing operations. A source familiar with past military operations compared the situation to post-1991 Iraq war recovery efforts, when the U.S. spent six months clearing roughly 1,300 mines and lost two warships in the process. In this case, the challenge could be greater because the location and volume of Iranian mines are unclear, raising the risk of drifting hazards and future incidents.

The disruption is already reshaping ocean operations. War risk insurance remains available, but premiums have surged sharply, discouraging transits. Reports cited in the article show rates rising to 1%–5% of hull value, with very large crude carriers facing multimillion-dollar premiums. At the same time, Maersk and other liner operators are seeking emergency fuel surcharge relief as bunker costs climb.

TLC is tracking carrier behavior, insurance headwinds, and routing pressure across affected lanes so customers can make informed, flexible decisions as conditions evolve. Reach out to keep your freight strategy steady, agile, and on track.