Early Peak For Rejections

Freight markets may be getting a holiday surprise. FreightWaves’ Zach Strickland reports SONAR’s Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) has already topped last year’s Christmas peak. STRI sat just under 9.5% at that peak. Readings above roughly 7–8% often signal a tighter truckload market. They can also push rates higher when capacity runs short.

This year’s setup looks different. The market skipped the usual post-Thanksgiving lull. That points to real capacity erosion. It also suggests a possible inflection point driven by supply cuts.

Demand still decides the story. SONAR’s Truckload Volume Index (STVI) ran 5–7% lower year over year through much of October and early November. The seasonal surge narrowed that gap to roughly 2–3%. Still, the improvement hasn’t stayed strong enough to confirm a structural shift. The Logistics Managers’ Index also flagged warehouse utilization contracting in November for the first time.

How TLC is responding: We’re tracking rejection pressure, lane-level capacity, and inventory signals to help you protect service and manage cost risk. Deadlines don’t scare us. They focus us. Reach out and we’ll pressure-test your plan—fast freight, handled with TLC.